We are about to enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". In August, good news came first for automotive aluminum profiles and 3C aluminum profiles. This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises also rebounded, with the operating rate of leading aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 71.0%; This week, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points, reaching 75.1%; The construction of recycled and primary alloy sectors is temporarily stable this week, and it is expected to rise in September with the recovery of demand. However, according to SMM research, the increase in operating rates in various sectors is limited, and there is currently no significant growth trend during the peak season. Overall, there is an expected improvement in overall demand in September, but high aluminum prices are suppressing downstream purchasing sentiment, and the process of aluminum ingot destocking is hindered. It is expected that the operating rate will show a slow upward trend in the short term. Focusing on terminal demand, firstly, in the photovoltaic sector, the cumulative production of photovoltaic modules from January to August increased by about 18% year-on-year. Downstream module factories are expected to have varying production increases and decreases in September, and the total volume can achieve a slight increase. Some top module factories are optimistic about the production schedule in October, and it is expected that the operating rate of photovoltaic frames may stabilize. At present, the average industry price for photovoltaic frame processing fees is between 3300-3400 yuan/ton. Many processing plants have reported operating at a loss, and some suppliers have indicated that they may reduce their orders in the future. For module factories, they are also more inclined to cooperate with listed companies or industry leaders, mainly because their funds are more abundant. In terms of aluminum consumption, the current unit consumption of aluminum for photovoltaic frames in top component factories is about 4800 tons/GW.
Overall, 2024 is a year when domestic aluminum consumption continues to tilt towards the new energy industry. The expected growth in global photovoltaic installed capacity and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles are increasing year by year, which will drive the expected year-on-year growth of aluminum applications in transportation and electricity. In the second half of 2024, Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production will basically return to full capacity operation in the third quarter, while other regions in China will maintain high production capacity. However, considering the significant uncertainty in hydropower aluminum production in Yunnan and other regions in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is expected to slow down to around 2% in the second half of 2024. At the same time, due to the continuous loss of imported electrolytic aluminum, the net import volume of electrolytic aluminum in China is expected to decrease by 13.5% year-on-year in the second half of the year, and the apparent consumption volume is expected to reduce pressure in the second half of 2024. On the other hand, in terms of consumption, the growth of domestic photovoltaic and new energy sectors in 2024 is in line with expectations, but the industry's output growth in the second half of the year is lower than expected. SMM expects the domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum to converge to 4.4% in 2024.
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What is the recent feedback on the use of aluminum in the new energy sector? SMM analysis
https://hq.smm.cn/photovoltaic/content/102932888 
